Free Pick for NFL Thursday Night Action

By Todd L. Frank | Thursday, December 17, 2009 | ( 0 )

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Indianapolis -3 at Jacksonville; over/under 43

This is the kind of game that’s really tough to handicap and make an informed pick against the spread. First, there wasn’t even a point spread posted for a few days since no one’s really sure if the Colts are going to play all out to win or if they’ll ease off the gas and start resting some players. Sure, head coach Jim Caldwell says they’ll play this one the same way they’ve played the others and “all healthy starters will play.” But for how long? Will Peyton Manning come out after one series, quarter, or half? Will he come out if Indianapolis has a 10-pt lead in the second half? We don’t know. My advice is to just stay away from this game. But since I’m paid handsomely to write a Free NFL Picks column, I gotta give you something.

Jacksonville has always played the Colts tough and tight. They also tend to play up (and down) to their opponents. A nationally televised home game should give them some momentum and they control their own wildcard playoff destiny so motivation won’t be a problem. The point spread opened at Indy -4 and moved down to the current Indy -3. So some people are betting on the Jags (or betting against the Colts going all out). I think both teams will try to control the clock and play conservative, and obviously Jacksonville will run the ball a lot since they should have success doing so against the Colts and also to keep Manning off the field, so I don’t see a lot of points being scored. But there’s still a lot of unknowns in this game and I can’t say I trust Jacksonville (or betting against Manning in a TV/night game). I think the best bet would be to tease the Jags up to +9 and the over/under up to 49 and take the under. The Pick: tease Jacksonville and the under.

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