Free NFL Picks for Week 17

By Todd L. Frank | Saturday, January 02, 2010 | ( 0 )

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It’s time to give you some free NFL picks against the spread for Week 17. Not every game is listed, just what I think are some of the best bets. These free picks are against the most current point spreads as of Saturday.

The best bet advice I can give you for the final week of the season is to stay away from most or all of these games. With the playoff scenarios mostly set, too many teams have nothing to play for and are resting key players. Some bad teams will beat good ones, while some bad teams will just be worse as they just don't care. Some odd point spreads reflect this. So beware of the last week of the season and maybe take a break and wait for the playoffs.

That said, since I get paid the big bucks to write the Free NFL Picks column, I did manage to pull out a few games worth looking at.

Tennessee -4.5 at Seattle
The Seahawks have been just terrible most of the year while the Titans righted the ship and were solid after starting 0-6. It was too late so they are eliminated, but RB Chris Johnson has a real shot at hitting 2000 yards. His offensive line has no Pro Bowlers so look for them to be extra nasty as the Titans roll over Seattle. Also the Seahawks are 0-8 against the point spread as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game. Give the points.

Pittsburgh -3 at Miami
The Steelers need a win and then some help to get in. The Dolphins have been pretty solid and they are technically still alive for a playoff spot but they need even more help than Pittsburgh. Look for the Steelers to get what might end up being a “too little too late” victory. Take Pittsburgh and give the points.

Philadelphia +3 at Dallas
Winner takes the NFC East, but both teams are in the playoffs win or lose. The Eagles can clinch the #2 seed overall with a win. There's also a funky trend here: always bet on teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 against the spread. Take Philly and the points.

Minnesota -7.5 vs. NY Giants
New York crapped the bed at home against Carolina with a playoff berth on the line. The Vikings got their mojo back in the second half against Chicago. Minnesota should look like their old selves again while the Giants will be looking at tee times.

Last week: 4-3
Season: 63-46-2

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