Stats and Trends for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs

By Todd L. Frank | Wednesday, January 13, 2010 | ( 0 )

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Well, it’s midweek and I know everyone’s examining the NFL Playoff matchups and looking ahead to what the best bets will be over the weekend. Picking against the point spread is tough stuff for sure. The lines get “truer” in the playoffs, as there are less games/teams to analyze and the guys in Vegas who set the lines know what they’re doing. So I’ve travelled the innerwebs near and far and gathered up a bunch of stats and trends to help you make your NFL picks this weekend. As usual I’ll have my picks in on Friday. Until then….

Following are the point spread results in various categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Before 1975, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 follows. After all that, we list a bunch of trends and stats pertinent to each of this weekend’s games.

CATEGORY... RESULT
Favorites vs. line...68-64-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up...94-41
Favored by 0-3 points...7-13-1
Favored by 3 ½-6 ½ points...24-22-1
Favored by 7-9 ½ points...24-18
Favored by 10-13 ½ points...10-8
Favored by 14 points or more...3-3-1
Home teams straight up...96-40
Home teams vs. spread...70-63-3
Home favorites vs. spread...66-61-3
Home underdogs vs. spread...3-2
Home picks vs. spread...1-0
Over/under (since 1986)...48-44

MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points...33
4-6 points...11
7-10 points...23
11-13 points...10
14 points or more...59

Saturday, January 16

ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS

Arizona is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona:
6-0 ATS as an underdog
13-2 ATS if 50+ points were scored last game
New Orleans:
11-25 ATS at home off loss by 10 or more
6-0 Under at home off ATS loss

BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS

Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indy's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore:
31-15 ATS off a road win
12-4 ATS off an Over
Indianapolis:
4-12 ATS off BB losses by 10 or more
8-0 Under in Saturday games

Sunday, January 17

DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas:
5-1 ATS off home division win
6-1 Under off division game
Minnesota:
17-5 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less
0-7 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards

NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO

NY Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
NY Jets:
21-9 Under off 3+ SU wins
3-10 ATS off BB wins by 10 or more
San Diego:
19-8 ATS off an Over
17-5 ATS off BB SU wins

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