Some Trends and Stats Looking Ahead to the NFL Conference Championships

By Todd L. Frank  |   Tuesday, January 19, 2010  |  Comments( 0 )

NFL Football News
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Looking at the recent history of top seeds, odds say there’s a slim chance of the Colts and Saints meeting in South Florida for the Super Bowl in February. Over the past 34 seasons, only 8 Super Bowls have featured the top seed from each conference. The last time it happened was when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXVIII following the 1993 regular season.

History indicates the Saints should like their chances for Super Bowl XLIV slightly better than the Colts. Since home field advantage counted in the post-merger playoffs, 20 of the NFC’s top seeds have reached the Super Bowl (with 13 wining it) while 17 of the top seeded AFC teams made the Super Bowl (with just 6 bringing home the trophy).

Here are a few trends for the final 4 teams. Following that, we’ll look ahead to possible Super Bowl point spread scenarios.

* Minnesota is 10-6-1 against the point spread this year.
* Straight up, Minnesota is 9-0 at home but just 4-4 on the road.
* The Under is 7-2-1 in the Vikings last 10 games in January, 7-2 in their last 9 games overall, and 6-2 in their last 8 vs. the NFC.
* New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
* While New Orleans is 14-3 straight up in its last 17 games, they are just 9-8 against the spread, including 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
* The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games, but the total has gone OVER in 15 of New Orleans's last 22 games at home.

* NY Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Indianapolis is 14-1 straight up in its last 15 games at home and was an impressive 11-5-1 against the spread this season.
* The Under is 7-2 in Indy’s last 9 playoff games

Lucky’s bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro posted Super Bowl spreads on all scenarios:

Colts -3 vs. Saints
Colts -4 vs. Vikings
Saints -6 vs. Jets
Vikings -4.5 vs. Jets
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