Free Picks on Super Bowl Prop Bets

By Todd L. Frank | Thursday, February 04, 2010 | ( 0 )

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Super Bowl props are fun way to have a bunch of small bets on the Super Bowl and keep the whole game interesting no matter how it's turning out. Super Bowl XLIV prop bets bring all the usual stuff, from the silly to the serious. You can bet on anything, from the length of the National Anthem and the coin toss to individual player stats to what color Kim Kardashian is wearing and how often they'll show her or Archie Manning on TV.

I think the over/under on “Number of times Archie Manning is shown on TV opened at 2.5 and actually shot up to 4.5. Not sure what it is, but the over should win.

Let's take a look at a bunch of Super Bowl prop bets that I like and start of the free picks and best bets of the weekend with the props and then we'll give you the point spread and over/under picks in a separate column.

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game?
Yes +170
No -210
I start with this one because it's a very common bet and people always bet YES. The YES looks enticing with the better odds and because it seems like it’s likely to happen. And yet it’s only happened 9 times in the 43 Super Bowls. Gonna stay away from this one.

Super Bowl XLIV – Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points?
Yes +400
No -600
Some good value there with YES, even though you’d be painting yourself into a pretty tight corner. But I could see the Colts winning by only 3 (and people losing a lot of money betting the Colts minus the spread) or the Saints squeaking out a classic. A $20 bet would win $80, might be worth the chance.

What will the TV Rating be? Wager is on what the Neilson TV Rating will be for Super Bowl XLIV.
Over 42.9 Nielsen Rating (-155)
The Conference Championships were off the charts. Even the Pro Bowl did well with half the stars not playing. I think last year’s Super Bowl did about a 42. Sure the Steelers are nationally popular, but the Cardinals? Now you’ve got Manning and the New Orleans factor and two great offenses. Bet the Over.

How many times will Pete Townshend do his legendary windmill move? Windmill move must be a full 360 degree revolution and be shown on TV to be counted for this wager.
5½
(-165)over
(+135)under
I don’t see how this stays under. He could wind around 10 times in one windmill session. He’s likely to go to his signature move at least twice. This is my lock of the week.

Odds to win 2010 Super Bowl XLIV MVP
Peyton Manning (IND)
2/3
Joseph Addai (IND)
10/1
Donald Brown (IND)
25/1
Reggie Wayne (IND)
10/1
Pierre Garcon (IND)
10/1
Austin Collie (IND)
20/1
Dallas Clark (IND)
12/1
Dwight Freeney (IND)
30/1
Robert Mathis (IND)
40/1
Antoine Bethea (IND)
50/1
Gary Brackett (IND)
50/1
Clint Session (IND)
50/1
Matt Stover (IND)
75/1
Drew Brees (NO)
9/4
Pierre Thomas (NO)
10/1
Mike Bell (NO)
20/1
Reggie Bush (NO)
10/1
Marques Colston (NO)
12/1
Devery Henderson (NO)
22/1
Robert Meachem (NO)
25/1
Lance Moore (NO)
50/1
Jeremy Shockey (NO)
22/1
David Thomas (NO)
50/1
Darren Sharper (NO)
28/1
Jonathan Vilma (NO)
40/1
Will Smith (NO)
50/1
Garrett Hartley (NO)
75/1
Field (Any Other Player)
10/1
There’s no value in Manning, and he will most likely win the MVP if the Colts win. A lot of people like Garcon cuz of his big game against the Jets (and he’s Haitian) but if he has a big game that means Manning does too. Brees isn’t a bad play if you think the Saints will win, since he’d likely bee the MVP if they do. Better value than Manning, but still not great value. Maybe Pierre Thomas is a good play at 10/1, if he were to have a monster day running the ball and score multiple TD’s while Brees is ordinary and throws a pick and only 1 TD in a Saints win.

Will Pierre Thomas score a TD in the game?
Yes +120
No -150
There’s a good chance the Saints will try run the ball a fair amount and he should get some touches around the goal line, so I’ll say YES.

Will Reggie Bush score a TD in the game?
Yes +135
No -165
Some decent value on YES. Sure, Bush is unlikely to have the kind of game he had against the Cardinals in the playoffs, but Sean Payton is great at scheming and getting favorable match ups so Bush is likely to get loose in the passing game at some point. And, as a runner, receiver, and returner, Bush’s extra touches increase the chance of him scoring.

Will Pierre Garcon score a TD in the game?
Yes +140
No -170
Great value on YES, considering Garcon almost definitely will score.

Who will throw the first TD pass in the game?
Drew Brees (NO) +125
Peyton Manning (IND) -155
Take Brees for the better value on what is really a 50-50 chance.

Player to score the first TD in the game
Drew Brees (NO)
25/1
Pierre Thomas (NO)
15/2
Mike Bell (NO)
15/1
Reggie Bush (NO)
17/2
Lynell Hamilton (NO)
12/1
Marques Colston (NO)
8/1
Devery Henderson (NO)
15/1
Robert Meachem (NO)
10/1
Lance Moore (NO)
18/1
Jeremy Shockey (NO)
12/1
David Thomas (NO)
15/1
Peyton Manning (IND)
30/1
Joseph Addai (IND)
11/2
Donald Brown (IND)
15/1
Reggie Wayne (IND)
13/2
Pierre Garcon (IND)
10/1
Austin Collie (IND)
10/1
Dallas Clark (IND)
6/1
Field (Any Other Player)
11/2
No TD scored in the game
150/1
The oddsmakers look like they think the Colts will score first, so I’ll pick a Saint because no reason to think they can’t be the team to score first. I’ll take Devery Henderson since he gives much better value at 15/1 than Marques Colston at 8/1.

Longest touchdown in the game (51.5 yards)
I’ll take the under. Even with these two offenses, a score of 52 yards or more just seems pretty unlikely.

Total Receiving Yards –- Jeremy Shockey (40.5)
I like the under on this one. Shockey’s been banged up and not a huge focal point of the offense. He might have a few catches, maybe even a crucial 3rd down conversion or a red-zone TD, but I don’t see him getting more than 40 yards.

Okay best of luck on all your Super Bowl prop bets, and we'll have our picks against the point spread and over/under later.

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