Best Bets for NFL Win Totals and Over/Unders

By Todd L. Frank  |   Wednesday, August 11, 2010  |  Comments( 2 )

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The NFL Free Picks and Best Bets column is back for 2010. Still a month to go for real games, and if you gamble on pre-season games you have a real problem. If you can’t wait to get in on the action for games that count, why not lay down a few Over/Under bets on NFL win totals. Here are a few free picks and best bets for win total over/unders:

NY Jets UNDER 9 ½
Here’s one that most people will bet the other way. Everyone assumes that since the Jets were one game away from the Super Bowl that they are now automatically contenders. They might be. But they might also crumble under the weight of the heightened expectations, and 2nd-year QB, the shell of Ladananian Tomlinson’s corpse, a pre-season reality TV show, and they constant quotes from their coach. I think they’ll be around 7 to 9 wins, jockeying for a wild-card berth.

Washington OVER 7 ½
Mike Shanahan, Donovan McNabb, a much-improved offensive line, Kyle Shanahan, Jim Haslett, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis on the field at the same time. They might not return the Burgundy & Gold to Super Bowl glory over night, but they will easily get to 8 wins and perhaps 9 or 10.

Oakland OVER 6
Oakland is my sneaky sleeper team this year. See my previous column for a walkthrough of their schedule and how they could contend for a playoff spot. They should be able surprise a few teams and get to 7 wins.

Buffalo UNDER 5 ½
I just don’t see how the Bills can get to 6 wins this year. Count on some subpar QB play from transitional back-up types who won’t be around if and when the new regime in Buffalo turns things around. They’ll probably squeeze out 4 or 5 victories, but it seems like a safe bet that they’ll stay under 6.

Carolina UNDER 7 ½
The Panthers are another team with question marks. I could see 6 or 7 wins considered as a success in Carolina, while 4-5 wins wouldn’t be terribly surprising. I doubt they get to 8.

Green Bay OVER 9 ½
The Packers should be very good again this year and battle Minnesota for the Division. I’m not crazy in love with betting that they’ll get to double-digit wins, but seems more likely than not.

Some other over/under win total picks I like:
Kansas City UNDER 6 ½, Houston OVER 8, Pittsburgh OVER 8 ½, Baltimore over 10, San Diego UNDER 11.

The rest of the over/under win totals that I didn’t pick:
Arizona 7 ½
Atlanta 9
Chicago 8
Cleveland 6
Dallas 10
Denver 7 ½
Detroit 5
Indianapolis 11
Jacksonville 7
Miami 8 ½
New England 9 ½
New Orleans 10 ½
NY Giants 8 ½
Philadelphia 8 ½
Pittsburgh 8 ½
San Diego 11
San Francisco 8 ½
Seattle 7 ½
Tampa Bay 5 ½
Tennessee 8 ½
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