Against the Spread: Free Saints-49ers Pick

By Todd L. Frank | Monday, September 20, 2010 | ( 0 )

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Time for some best bets and free picks against the spread for Monday Night Football week 2.

New Orleans -5.5 at SAN FRANCISCO

I doubt the 49ers are as bad as an opening day blowout loss to a team like the Seahawks in week 1 might indicate. But they aren’t yet world beaters despite most of us assuming that this is their division for the taking in the PKW Era (post-Kurt Warner). The Super Bowl Champion Saints weren’t spectacular on opening night when they beat what looks to be a hurting Vikings squad. So what to make of either team at this point? Tough call. Can’t overreact to just one game, but I think it’s safe to assume that New Orleans is certainly the better team.

As far as pertinent trends go, the Saints are 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games on grass, and in head-to-head matchups, New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with San Francisco.
The 49ers should benefit from being the home dogs on MNF and Coach Mike Singletary will have them focused for the Champion Saints. But if Alex Smith is who we thought he was, and struggles lead to sideling grumblings and some hometown boo birds, San Fran could be in trouble. This is a slightly high number of points to lay on the road on a Monday Night division game, but I think the best bet is to roll with the Saints and give the 5.5.

BONUS PICK: Saints-49ers OVER 43.5

So far this season a lot of games have stayed Under the total points. Chalk that up to offenses still not in great synch. I don’t expect the Saints to be high-flying scoring 40+ points like they did so many times last season, but they will get theirs and the 49ers will get Vernon Davis involved enough to get some points on the board. This is a slightly high number of points to lay on the road on a Monday Night game, but I think the best bet is to roll with the Saints and give the 5.5.

So far this week against the spread: 2-3
This season: 9-6

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