Week 12 Picks: Stay-Away Games

By Todd L. Frank | Friday, November 26, 2010 | ( 0 )

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Since my picks have been hovering around .500 for most of the season, I figured it's time to change it up maybe just for one week. Instead of offering best bets for Week 12 NFL picks, I'll take a look at a few games and their gambling angles, and then you can decide who to bet on. You're bound to do better than me! Home teams are in all caps.

NEW YORK GIANTS –7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Another one of those “something's got to give” type of games. Both teams are 6-4 straight up and in contention for their respective divisions. The Jags are just 1-7 against the spread (ATS) vs. teams with winning records. But the Giants are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. New York stumbles in following two consecutive division losses while Jacksonville has won three in a row. Something's got to give.

Pittsburgh Steelers –7 at BUFFALO BILLS
Who do you trust here? Well obviously the Steelers are generally more trustworthy, but this season the feisty Bills have hung with good teams and covered the spread in most of their losses. Pittsburgh has a been inconsistent, with duds in big spots against the Saints and Patriots. They tend to take care of business against the non-contenders (see wins over Tampa, Cleveland and Oakland). Buffalo's passing game has caught fire with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and a pass-heavy game plan is probably the best way to have success against a Steeler team that won't let you run the ball. I see the Steelers winning this game. But are they dominant enough to close out a scrappy squad like the Bills? Don't you think the momentum of Buffalo's explosive win at Cincinnati will have some carry over playing at home against high-profile opponent? Could be an interesting game to watch, but a real “stay-away” game as far as wagering.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS –1 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Here's the case of not trusting either team. The erratic and disappointing Vikings aren't just bad on the field, they're 2-8 ATS. Washington is 5-18 ATS vs. teams with losing records and only 5-13 ATS at home. Yuk. The Vikings only straight-up win in the last 6 games was a home win over the pathetic Cardinals. Minnesota hasn't covered the spread since they squeaked by the struggling Cowboys at home in mid October. But here's the reason to stay away: too much unknown with the Vikings playing their first game since coach Brad Childress was fired. Will they have a spring in their step and get a road win the way the Cowboys did a couple weeks ago against the Giants? Will the Redskins be able to expose the fact that the Vikings have serious flaws on the field that have little to do with who's coaching the team? Can the Redskins stop anyone and can McNabb and the Shanny's get anything going on offense with no running backs and no real scary WR's?

BALTIMORE RAVENS –7.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At 7-3, Tampa just wont go away. They still haven't beaten any really good teams, but perhaps they are primed to do so this week? I doubt that. I think the Ravens will get the win at home, but Bucs QB Josh Freeman has a way of keeping them in games and we've seen Baltimore's defense give up 34 points to the Bills at home and an 80 winning TD drive in the final minute at Atlanta. This point spread opened at 9 and the sharps in Vegas bet it down to 7.5 so the smart money might be with the Bucs getting more than a TD. But couldn't you see the Ravens flexing their muscle over an NFC team that's probably not quite as good as it's record?

Okay, enough of me staying away from the games. Let's make a couple picks:

San Diego Chargers +3 at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Chargers have had Indy's number over the last several years (SD is 4-1 ATS and straight up over the last 5). And they are gelling and peaking and look poised to continue they're winning ways following their annual slow start. Meanwhile the Colts finally look human, tho they were quite close to a comeback win at New England last week. Injuries and changing rosters have finally brought Peyton Manning closer back to earth, but he can still lead them to a big home win in a Sunday night TV game. I usually don't like betting against Manning in national TV night games, but this smells like a Statement Game for Phillip Rivers and even if Manning's heroics manage to get them over the hump, you're still getting the 3 points. Take SD.

ATLANTA FALCONS –1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Great NFC showdown. Anything could happen in this game, but Matt Ryan is 18-1 at home so the best bet is to take the Falcons at home giving only 1 pt. Just win baby.

Last Week: 4-1
This Season: 37-36

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