CZAR: Guide to the NFL off-season

By Hugo Guzman | Tuesday, February 15, 2005 | ( 0 )

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The off-season is when NFL teams reshape themselves for the season ahead. It's when the most critical decisions are made, primarily on coaching staffs and in player personnel, from free agency through the college draft to pre-training camp roster changes due to salary-cap limitations and the procurement of street free agents.

Often, the best moves are the ones that aren't made. The two Super Bowl teams - New England and Philadelphia - made the best decisions last season and both franchises are a model for how to win in the NFL.

That said, here's a look at what to keep an eye on in the coming months ...

Will the Vikings trade Moss?

There is so much misinformation out there. Yes, the Vikings could move Moss without incurring a horrendous salary-cap hit. And, yes, Minnesota is desperate for a quality defender. Maybe more than one. But will a team like Baltimore trade a starting linebacker like Edgerton Hartwell and a first-round pick for Moss? It's going to take at least that much.

The Raiders don't mind unloading disappointing cornerback Phillip Buchanon, but will they also part with their first-round pick, seventh overall? They will have to do that to make a Moss trade work. Then, they must also make sure to keep Jerry Porter on the roster, thus ensuring a big-time passing offense.

However, I've heard that Moss has no interest in being a Raider because he doesn't see the franchise reaching the playoffs. Moss wants to play in a Super Bowl before he retires. Moss is worth a lot because he remains the finest game-breaking offensive talent in the league. And if the Vikings do trade him, they can never replace him and are sentenced to another season of mediocrity. At least with Moss, they have a fighting chance to make the playoffs.

Which teams made the right head-coach choice?

Patriots coach Bill Belichick will tell you new Miami coach Nick Saban is a chip off the old block. If Saban is another Belichick, then the Dolphins figure to be a playoff team in 2006 for sure. But it will be difficult next season with both the Patriots and Jets in the same division.

The Browns and 49ers hired two deserving defensive coordinators in Romeo Crennel and Mike Nolan. Both men have paid their dues in this league and deserve the opportunity to be head coaches. But no one really knows if they will succeed. They are taking over two teams who are talent poor with two rookie personnel men in the major decision-making roles.

This is critical.

Both Phil Savage and Scot McCloughan are excellent evaluators of college players, but neither has spent a football season in the office. Both men are road junkies and they are used to a certain way of life. Can they still find time to scout talent on the road while also spending time in the office, helping their rookie head coaches with the major pro personnel decisions? That's a big question and often a difficult one for men used to scouting and not sitting behind a desk; who are comfortable delegating some authority while also making the most difficult of decisions.

Five players who could be traded:

The Eagles shocked the world by placing the franchise tag on defensive tackle Corey Simon, who had one tackle in the Super Bowl. The Eagles are all about value, so they must be thinking about trading Simon if the opportunity arises. The Eagles will definitely shop receiver Freddie Mitchell, but who wants a loudmouth?

For the right price, Minnesota will shed offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie. And the Packers have incentive to move free safety Darren Sharper, who doesn't make enough big plays.

The most attractive player on the block is Miami cornerback Patrick Surtain, who still has Pro Bowl skills. Surtain to the Colts for Edgerrin James makes a lot of sense, but it's unlikely to happen. The Colts need James more than they need Surtain, although you keep hearing that Peyton Manning wishes James would spend more time in the off-season in Indianapolis.

And you have to wonder if the Steelers would unload backup quarterback Tommy Maddox to a team like the Cowboys. Isn't Maddox more valuable to another team with Ben Roethlisberger getting all the starts?

Most coveted free agents:

Right now, it looks like quarterbacks Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese have a good chance of landing starting jobs other than Cleveland and Tampa Bay, respectively. I'm not a fan of either one, but their movement isn't so much a statement of their abilities as it is the lack of decent quarterback play elsewhere. There are currently five franchises who don't like their current crop of quarterbacks, and that's why Garcia and Griese will be in play.

Tampa Bay's Brad Johnson is also on the market, but you wonder if any one team can protect him. Johnson is a splendid decision-maker, but no longer has the deep-ball arm to be intriguing to someone like Bill Parcells in Dallas. There is a glut of running backs, headed by Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James. Plus, there's the low-cost favorite - the Jets' Lamont Jordan.

Seattle is in a pickle because their three best players - Alexander, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and offensive tackle Walter Jones - are all unrestricted and they have routinely been placing the franchise tag on Jones. It's really looking like the Seahawks will focus on Hasselbeck and Alexander and allow Jones to escape if he wants to.

The Jets plan to use the franchise tag on pass rusher John Abraham, whose knee was too weak to make an impact in the playoffs. They may not have enough money to secure defensive lineman Jason Ferguson, who could end up receiving a big offer from the Cowboys.

Who will go early in NFL draft?

The 49ers, who own the first choice, are in a quandary. There isn't a franchise quarterback atop any team's draft boards, thus lessening the value of the top choice. This is a running-back heavy draft, plus most of the best free agents in the NFL are running backs. It will be impossible to get value by trading away the pick.

Granted, a quarterback like Utah's Alex Smith probably will climb the ladder into the top five and make things interesting. The other top players, though, are Miami cornerback Antrel Rolle, Texas linebacker Derrick Johnson, Oklahoma pass rusher Dan Cody, Michigan receiver Braylon Edwards and Florida State offensive tackle Alex Barron, who is 6-foot-7.

Edwards is a superstar athlete, but it seems unlikely that the 49ers, who need all the playmakers they can find, would take a receiver with the first choice. The scouting combine is in Indianapolis in two weeks and players will begin to sort themselves out.

And speaking to the depth of the running backs, Auburn alone has two backs in the top 10. Throw in Cedric Benson of Texas, another potential top 10 selection, and the draft projections for Ohio State's Maurice Clarett get even murkier. Clarett, who challenged and lost his attempt to enter the draft early a year ago, is somewhere around the fourth or fifth round. Talk about blowing millions of dollars.

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