Looking inside the numbers in San Francisco’s opening loss

By Jeff Dickinson  |   Thursday, September 11, 2008  |  Comments( 10 )

San Francisco 49ers
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A former ESPN personality who moved on to TV stardom as the voice of Salem the Cat on “Sabrina the Teenage Witch” became famous for his line: “The numbers never lie.”

Nick Bakay made a name for himself with his segments on ESPN called “The Tale of the Tape.” Bakay would take two sports figures or topics and then compare the numbers to reveal that they will always bring the truth to light.

Unfortunately, the numbers did lie in San Francisco’s season-opening loss to Arizona last weekend.

The reason that stats can be deceiving starts and ends with 49ers quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan. On the surface, O’Sullivan had a decent game in his first NFL start, completing 70 percent of his passes (14-of-20) for 195 yards.

Whenever a quarterback connects on 70 percent of his throws in a game, it's a significant achievement. Other factors, however, need to be considered when evaluating O’Sullivan’s performance against the Cardinals. For instance, he fumbled the ball two times and threw an interception against Arizona. All too often, turnovers are primarily judged on whether they lead to points. Turnovers also play a significant role in killing a team’s momentum, even if they don’t result in the other club scoring.

On O’Sullivan’s first-quarter interception, the 49ers were in the midst of a successful drive that had them almost at midfield (the 47-yard line). Another 20 yards and the 49ers would have been in field goal range.

When O’Sullivan fumbled the first time, San Francisco had driven down to the Arizona 20 and was in position to put more points on the scoreboard. In O’Sullivan’s defense, the offensive line did give up four sacks, which obviously caused him to have to scramble more than anyone wearing red and gold would have liked.

In addition to O’Sullivan’s two fumbles, the 49ers also lost two more. No matter how good a team is, it isn’t going to win many games with five fumbles. The biggest miscue occurred when Takeo Spikes muffed a kickoff and the Cardinals recovered at the San Francisco 33. Eight plays later, Arizona scored the go-ahead touchdown to make the score 10-7.

Besides the fumbled kickoff by Spikes, the 49ers also failed to do a good job in the area of field position. Arizona averaged starting at its 48-yard line, while the 49ers began at their own 20. When you give up an average of 28 yards per possession throughout a game, it is bound to catch up with you.

Considering they have to travel to Seattle for this weekend's NFC West showdown, the 49ers don’t have much time to get their special teams and turnover act together. The Seahawks took a 34-10 beating in Buffalo, but they're historically better at home and will be looking to rebound from Week 1.

One thing in San Francisco’s favor is that Seattle has a wounded receiving corps. The Seahawks lost starting split end Nate Burleson to a knee injury in their opener. That came on the heels of losing Bobby Engram to a shoulder injury, Ben Obamanu to a broken collarbone and Deion Branch to a knee ailment.

It’s anyone’s guess as to which receivers the 49ers will have to key on in Sunday’s game. Because of their shortage of receivers, the Seahawks will surely attempt to establish the run with Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett, among others; one more problem for the Hawks: They lost starting RB Maurice Morris to an injury in Buffalo.

The Seahawks are a veritable MASH unit, so the 49ers won't have any excuses.
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About Jeff Dickinson

I have been writing and editing professionally for 18 years. I spent the first three years of my career as a sportswriter for a daily newspaper in Alabama and got to cover sports and get paid for it! It was great until I got married and then it wasn't too much fun being away from my wife every...
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CommentsComments: 10  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
Jedi		11:49 AM
09/11/2008
Nice break down, Jeff. One correction though, the 49ers had 5 turnovers, but 4 of them were fumbles. But I do agree with you....
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No.2
RaiderRex		05:17 PM
09/11/2008
I hate to say it, as a lifelong Raider fan and 49er despiser, I think the 9ers have a good shot at going into Seattle and beating...
No.3
05:36 PM
09/11/2008
The 49ers havent looked good im going to get a little crazy and say watch out for the cardinals this season in that division but...
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