Championship game kribbles, part IV: Giants’ offense vs. Packers’ defense

By Os Davis  |   Thursday, January 17, 2008  |  Comments( 16 )

Green Bay Packers
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At first, the New York Giants-Green Bay Packers matchup didn't feel all that compelling; after all, wasn't everyone not subsumed by the East Coast bias hoping for Dallas here?

Yet, as anticipation builds in the week lead-up to the game (Who says overhype is bad?), this contest seems like potentially more and more fun. Heck, the possible hilarity of a squirmingly giddy Eli Manning taking the obligatory pre-game photo op with Brett Favre has me anticipating greatness before the coin flip.

Relative levels of skepticism regarding Manning aside, this week will mark a true test for the lad in the fearsome Green Bay 'D'. And that's just one of the subplots for Sunday afternoon; it could be a good one. In the meantime, the last kribbling of the week ...

In terms of a little necessary appreciation, an appearance in the nationally televised NFC championship is a godsend for this Packer defense. With the Favre hype drowning out everything this side of 17-0, one of the best units in the NFL is making the guys on Miami's classic No-Name Defense look like media hogs. Tell you what, though: Youngsters Brady Poppinga, Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are starting to resemble those guys who played on the miracle 2001 Patriots ...

So Eli Manning has officially come of age as an NFL quarterback. Maybe. This writer seems to recall that talking heads were tripping all over themselves in 2005 somewhere between the Giants' 3-1 start and 6-2 halfway mark to proclaim Peyton's younger brother was ready for prime time. Ever notice that, in these searches for a defining moment, certain young guys come of age about 12 times before they actually attain peak performing level? Seriously, Kobe Bryant was proclaimed to have emerged, what, 17 times between 1998 and 2000? (And, in terms of career, Tony Romo is still not quite pubescent: a fact he should bear in mind the next time he's reading his own headlines.)

What Manning will be facing in the Green Bay pass defense is one that applies a fair amount of pressure, attaining 36 sacks this season on 570 pass plays (attempts plus sacks), a rate nearly exactly equal to that of the top aerial defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers but well lower than, say, the New York Giants at 53 bags against 576 throws.

The real key to the Packers' pass 'D' is coverage. Green Bay has forced opposition QBs to throw with just 55.2 percent accuracy - about exactly midway between Cleo Lemon and Rex Grossman's stat for 2007 - in the regular season. (Matt Hasselbeck's 19-of-33 performance in the divisional playoff represents a 57.6 completion rate.) Meanwhile, in two playoff games, Manning has thrown for an excellent 71.1 percent accuracy, better than big brother and third behind only you-know-who and you-know-who.

After waking up slightly late, the Packer 'D' reduced Hasselbeck to a pitiful 15 of 28 over the final 56 minutes of game; plus, forced to go long on third down for most of the rest of the game, the Seahawks were just 2 of 10 on conversions after taking the 14-0 lead.

Numbers aside, Manning will have to fine-tune his laser throwing to get past Green Bay's underappreciated, glue-sticky secondary.

Here's betting Amani Toomer won't find things quite so easy this week, even if there isn't flying snow.

One possible weakness: Charles Woodson. Woodson's performance has been a bit erratic since he injured his foot on the special-teams play against the Detroit Lions back in Week 12; the cornerback appears to have lost a step or so and is still listed as probable for the Giants game.

The man Manning should watch out for is Atari Bigby, who's been playing out of his mind recently. He was everywhere against the Seahawks last week, emerging from the blizzard like The Abominable Snowman time and again to make seven stops while harassing receivers throughout.

MVP in an upset win: Brandon Jacobs.

X-factor: Ahmad Bradshaw.

Can't wait? Me neither.

Passing notes in class all year-round at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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CommentsComments: 16  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
Carl		02:10 AM
01/18/2008
The packers stats on defense are all padded up by the weakest schedule in the NFL against some of the worst offenses. The games ...
No.2
tomt		08:51 AM
01/18/2008
Better take another look at the packers D They bend but don't break. A lot of teams have tried to throw on them and didn't have a ...
No.3
Josh		10:33 AM
01/18/2008
I have to disagree with Carl on a few things. I agree with him that the way they played the bears was pitiful. I literally turned ...
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