Carolina’s 18.6 needs to be fixed

By Jeff Lykes  |   Friday, October 13, 2006  |  Comments( 1 )

Carolina Panthers
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The statistic is mind-boggling, and last Sunday's performance against the 1-4 Cleveland Browns was the icing on the cake: The Carolina Panthers can't convert on third down. In fact, they are currently connecting on the most critical down at the alarming rate of 18.6% of the time. Here are a few figures that will put this shameful percentage into perspective:

-Only one team in the past five years has made it to the playoffs with a third-down completion percentage under 30. Last year the Chicago Bears, who were notorious for their shoddy offense (and eventually lost to the Panthers in the playoffs), connected 28.8% of the time on third down. This season, the high-powered, unstoppable Bears are hitting the sticks 40% of the time (that's good for ninth in the NFL).

-Only two teams in the past five years have finished in the bottom five in this statistic and still made it to the playoffs: The '05 Bears and the 2001 Philadelphia Eagles. And yes, the Eagles, who converted 30.9% of the time, did go to the NFC Championship Game that year, but I feel that most rules have exceptions, don't you?

-No team in the Super Bowl Era has ever finished last and won the whole thing and, currently, this dubious distinction is held by none other than the Carolina Panthers.

With all the talk about the return of Steve Smith (look no further than yours truly), you would think that the Panthers' offense would be improving in this category. But the unit's obvious ineptitude was showcased front and center during the team's Week 5 home win against the Browns. Carolina was a disturbingly inefficient zero for 11 on third downs. The unconvincing 20-12 victory was more the product of the Browns' lousy play than anything the Panthers did. If not for finishing plus-three in the turnover battle and a dropped pass that Richard Marshall intercepted for a touchdown, the outcome could have been much different.

But let's focus in on that actual number some more: 18.6%. I don't think I'm stressing how low this is. This year's Oakland Raiders, one of the worst squads to ever don NFL uniforms (not kidding), are second to last in this category with the fairly proud mark of 24.4%. Have you seen these guys play? They're horrendous.

Basically, it comes down to this: It's pretty hard NOT to connect on third down at least one-fifth of the time. In fact, in the last five seasons, it's never happened. No team has finished below 20% and this is where the Carolina Panthers could be headed. The lowest final tally in this time-span is 24%, a notorious average shared by last year's San Francisco 49ers and the 2002 Dallas Cowboys (those teams finished a combined 9-23).

The lesson: You can win with a bad third-down conversion rate, but you're probably not beating anybody good.
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