You read it here first

By Os Davis  |   Sunday, April 13, 2008  |  Comments( 0 )

New England Patriots
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Here at RealFootball365.com, editorial policy holds that writers not attempt to predict win/loss records or outcomes of individual games in advance. It’s easily understandable: To cite a couple of mundane examples, who knew the Cleveland Browns would go 10-6 last season and how ‘bout that 6-2 first half turned in by the Detroit Lions? As for the Patriots going undefeated last season, well, not every can have the cojones to boldly state they’d go 16-0 before opening day like Tony Kornheiser and, ahem, me.

Then while idly surfing NFL.com, it hit me like a revelation on the road to Damascus; the secret to the 2008 season opened before me and I come to you today to speak the truth of ages, incredible as though it may sound. While the RF365 bigwigs may not appreciate predictions, this one is so big, so astounding, so why-didn’t-I-think-of-that, that it cannot be held back.

The New England Patriots will go undefeated in 2008.

You want reasons? All right, how about 16, one for each regular-season win? Here goes nothing...

• The coaching staff. Sure, sure, everyone attempting to define the reasons for Patriots success in the A.B. (After Belichick/Brady) Era typically start with this one. Here, though, just a couple of facts: 2007 represented the first A.B. Era New England team not to have lost a single member from the upper ranks of the coaching staff from the year previous. This year, the only change is Joel Collier’s replacement by Dom Capers. Why is this not being talked about more?

• The schedule. I daresay it doesn’t take a Nostradamus to predict that the 2008 New England Patriots schedule may go down as the easiest since Dick Jauron wound the Chicago Bears up and let ‘em go to work on slim pickings back in 2001. Who needs dates? Who needs Draft Day? Look at this thing: Miami, Buffalo, the incredible immolating Jets, Kansas City, Oakland, San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis ... these teams could all improve twofold qualitatively and they’d all still be marginal. What’s scary for Pats backers? At San Diego, maybe. Versus Denver, probably, with the way Mike Shanahan somehow rules Belichick. At Indianapolis, definitely.

(Imagine the 15-0 New England Patriots playing in Indy in week 17. Whoa...)

• History is on their side. Really. Year 2007 proved that winning 16 regular-season games is possible; most of it isn’t even particularly difficult. The aura surrounding 16-0, 17-0, and 18-0 is gone and winning out will in the short term seem less daunting, surely. The lesson: The tough bit is winning the Super Bowl – particularly that last 2:30 or so.

• The draft. Whether Belichick and co. get to grab Vernon Gholston (unlikely, for the hype is high) or “settle” for Leodis McKelvin or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the Patriots are uniquely positioned to improve with an immediate impact player in an area in which they are marginally soft. And that’s only round one. Nice trade for San Francisco’s spot last year, eh?

• Addition by subtraction in the free agency period. Yes, it looked back at the go. Yes, this writer was one of those, if not pushing the panic button on the Patriots, certainly fingering its edges shakily in the first week. Donte’ Stallworth, Randall Gay and the slash-and-burn departure of Asante Samuel appeared to be body blows, and the release of Rosevelt Colvin an eyebrow-raiser at least. On the other hand, key free agent Randy Moss re-signed, and the secondary gained a number of pieces – Tank Williams, Lewis Sanders, Fernando Bryant and Jason Webster – that should relieve the primary problems there. By the time August rolls around, this roster will be one trim, young(ish) fighting machine.

• In fact, in general, I’d go so far as to say that, with a proper draft (and history has shown that Bill Belichick knows the draft), the 2008 Patriots may be better than last year’s undefeated team.

• Wes Welker. Remember the 2001 Patriots, with their small-ball mentality, the hyperactive version of the West Coast Offense? With Welker, the most effective receiver out of the slot in the league last year, an entire chapter of the Pats playbook has been reopened and rewritten better than ever. For all the talk in 2007 regarding Brady as MVP and Moss as MVP, Welker is what makes this pass attack particularly (mostly) unstoppable.

• Brady-to-Moss. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The rest of the NFL showed that they had no answer to Brady-to-Moss, unless you include getting Matt Light to party too hardily before the Super Bowl. With this year’s secondary weaker than in 2007, the Patriots will need to put up more points. They will.

• Jabar Gaffney. And just when you think a double-team of Moss plus flooding the middle to stop the short in-route to Welker, they’ll go to this guy. Folks ‘round Foxborough suspect that this guy will play a Pro Bowl game or two before all is said and done; keep an eye on Gaffney in 2008. If you can.

• The offensive line. After the pitiful big game performance from the big bad five – Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Nick Kaczur – you think we’ll see some improvement here? Note, too, the excellent play by the only comparable OL in the game in Indianapolis last year in chasing up that team’s Super Bowl appearance. We’ll not ignore these guys in 2008, but better go light (so to speak) on the praise until they bag the trophy this time.

• Videogate sobered them. Said Belichick: "We've taken it as a positive and reorganized our operations to make sure a situation like this never comes up again. Our operation is more efficient, more streamlined. Look at the results of this season. That would confirm it." (A million Patriots detractors just scoffed, and a million Patriots fans giggled with Montgomery Burns-like glee. "Excellent...")

• Laurence Maroney. Do you realize that the Pats finished ninth overall in rushing attempts and fifth in rushing TDs last year? And that Maroney only went for 835 yards while Sammy Morris spent most of the year injured? Pats backers are still waiting for a true breakout year from the young dude. Imagine New England with a proper running game...

• Overtime: still undefeated. As the years roll on, the Belichick sheen of invincibility gets slightly tarnished. Regardless, the Patriots remain undefeated in OT in the A.B. Era. In this decade, the instances of overtime have fluctuated from 12 (in 2004) to 25 (in 2002), averaging out to slightly under half an overtime game per season per team. Figure New England to play one in 2008 and win.

• Home-field advantage. Global warming aside, it says here that Foxborough is still hell to play in come December. Since 2001, the Patriots have gone an astounding 15-1 at home in December (the ratio slips to 16-2 if regular-season games in January are included), with the last such loss coming in 2002. It doesn’t much matter what New England’s record going into December: Near-guaranteed is three wins out of four and four of four is actually likely.

• They Want It, with a capital “W” and a capital “I.” Was the Giants’ two-minute drill a wakeup call for the Patriots? The helmet catch, the inability to bring down Eli Manning when it counted, the dropped pick by Samuel, and New Englanders could still even make a case for that last second Brady-to-Moss as a blown play. Some of the Patriots are probably still waking up daily and wondering what the hell happened that historical achievement was so cruelly denied repeatedly in 2:30 of football hell. This writer refuses to call Super Bowl XLII the biggest upset of all-time, but probably nothing in football history can be compared to the magnitude of this loss. Maybe Manning should be known as the new Bill Mazeroski, and fans should remember that in 1963 the Yankees were the Yankees again.

• All things being equal and insipid talk of relative dominance aside, the New England Patriots are still the best team out there.

Get ready for some serious history, football fans. And remember: You read it here first.

Outlandish throughout the year at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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