The smart money: Betting the Patriots in 2008

By Os Davis  |   Monday, June 16, 2008  |  Comments( 4 )

New England Patriots
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If Las Vegas is the city that never sleeps, the virtual version is the world of online sportsbook. While blogger after blogger submits speculation piece after speculation piece on NFL football, oddsmakers are apparently working around the clock on ... well, on speculation. But speculation that’s worth lots of money!

(Quasi-obligatory caveat: Only in places where such activity is 100 percent legal, naturally. And never without your parents’ permission, kiddies.)

Some kind of alarm that only bookies can hear was apparently tripped this weekend (maybe it was the combination of the NBA nearing its end and the impossible-to-bet interleague play of Major League Baseball in full swing), with a bunch of Web sites posting the year’s first conference, divisional and Super Bowl odds. Predictably enough, those hateable New England Patriots found themselves favorites, despite not having taken the Lombardi Trophy in three seasons now.

A brief look, then, at a few Patriot-centric odds currently available for you to put that money where your mouth is. Warning: More than one of these lines is mouth-wateringly tempting; best cut up your credit cards before you continue if you’re easily susceptible to suggestion ...

The wager: Cedric Benson to join New England Patriots, 3/1. RealFootball365.com commented on a proposition bets posted at online gambling giant BodogLife.com, including this one last Friday. At that time, it wasn’t exactly clear whether this line was posted before Benson’s last DWI; regardless, the Pats were placed atop the table for Benson’s services.
The smart money: Though popularly perceived of as the top NFL franchise in terms of “image rehabilitation,” this reputation has been gained by helping out players who had on-field attitudinal problems (Randy Moss, Corey Dillon, Rodney Harrison to some extent). Benson’s troubles stupidly continued despite a Super Bowl appearance, getting handed sole ownership of the starting halfback spot for 2007, and coach Lovie Smith’s loyalty. Though Bill Belichick & Co. would doubtlessly appreciate a backup for slightly fragile Laurence Maroney, the truth is the Patriots are much more likely to pick up Kevin Jones (who worked out for the team in May), sign Lamont Jordan at a low price or simply stick with the Maroney/Kevin Faulk/Sammy Morris trio. Take “The Field” at 3/1, but only if Canadian Football League teams are included.

The wager: Jerod Mayo to be named 2008 Sporting News Rookie of the Year, 8/1 (+800). Nearest competition – as SBG Global sees it – includes Darren McFadden at 7/2 (+350); Glenn Dorsey, Felix Jones, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, and Jonathan Stewart at 5/1 (+500); Rashard Mendenhall at 13/2 (+650); and Vernon Gholston, Jake Long and Keith Rivers at 8/1.
The smart money: Sure, Mayo looks great in early camps, he’ll be getting lots of playing time, and will probably be an instant impact player. Voter prejudice is stacked against Mayo before the opening kickoff, however: Though linebackers have been doing well lately (Brian Urlacher was named winner in 2000, Kendrell Bell in 2001, Shawne Merriman in 2005), players on the offense are favored. Quick: Name the rookie of the year last year! Ah, you wanted to say Adrian Peterson, didn’t ya? That’s what Sporting News said. Meanwhile, No. 3 Joe Thomas started at OT from the first snap and was named first-team Pro Bowler for Cleveland. It’s injustice, I tells ya. If you must bet, go with McFadden. Or Ryan. Or maybe Dorsey ... ah, stay away from this one.

The wager: Over/under win total for the Patriots, 12.5.
The smart money: Although it’s way ahead of time and not everyone is lining up behind this writer’s revelatory vision, the bookmakers are no dummies here. First consideration is that SBG’s nearest competitor here is the Indianapolis Colts and their over/under is 11. Secondly, take a look at the Patriots’ schedule; how many toughies there? Indianapolis in Indy, to be sure. After that, what? San Diego in California? Pittsburgh at home? Even the Denver Broncos, who habitually give Belichick’s Pats fits are weaker than ever in the Mike Shanahan era and in fact are coming to Foxborough. Barring disaster, New England should cruise to 13-3. Take the over and pray Brady stays healthy.

The wager: Patriots to win AFC East, 1/8 (-800).
The smart money: At these odds, you’d have to pony up $100 to win $12.50. Minus the typical 10 percent off-the-top shill, you’re talking a whopping $2.50 for sweating out – OK, maybe not sweating per se – six games against cannon fodder. Yes, yes, nobody knows anything this early on, but this trio could each improve fourfold and still struggle to 8-8. The Buffalo Bills are crawling out of their deep hole, but they still appear to be a year or two away. (Plus, Dick Jauron’s still in charge, right?) To say the New York Jets are in disarray would be a kind (and convenient) explanation for the woes of Eric Mangini, and the Miami Dolphins will be starting from ground zero minus last season’s catastrophic draft. Break the bank to play this one; let’s see, $5,000 would get me $125 after the 10 percent ... honey, can we sell one of the children? I mean, lease?

The wagers: Patriots to win the AFC, 3/2 (+150); Patriots to win Super Bowl XLIII, 13/4 (+325). Nearest competition are the Chargers and Colts; Cowboys and Packers.
The smart money: Now these lines illustrate the problem with this sort of gambling. Whereas on paper, the Pats may be the favorite to take the AFC and the favorite to win the Super Bowl, reality says such a feat would be unprecedented. First up is the recent trend for the Super Bowl loser to suffer a relative letdown in the coming season (indeed, Rams and Bears and that ilk aside, the Patriots chased two of their Super Bowl wins with their worst finishes of the Belichick era: Missing the 2002 playoffs and a divisional playoff loss in 2005); after running up an 18-0 run, New England is certainly expected to perform worse. And a repeat trip to the Super Bowl has happened many a time after a loss in the big game, but next-year redemption has only been experienced once: By – get this – the 1972 Dolphins.

On the other hand, with what other team would you hedge a bet with? The heart/mind duality might be scintillating in philosophy and romance, but it’s a lower circle of hell for the prospective gambler. The RF365 call: Don’t touch these particular props. At least not yet.

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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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