Ladies and gentlemen, your 2013 New England Patriots …

By Os Davis  |   Tuesday, July 01, 2008  |  Comments( 5 )

New England Patriots
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As time slowly passes for the NFL during the long dead period leading up to training camp, speculation continues mutating subject matter into the more and more abstract. Seeking to focus some idle daydreaming into proper prose about the New England Patriots, RealFootball365.com decided to embark on a little thought experiment vis-à-vis the defending AFC champions.

To wit: What might these Patriots look like in five years?

Going into Year 8 of the A.B. (After Belichick/Brady) era in Foxborough, we’re given a few clues as to how great the turnover may be by 2013 and who might stick around. Recent five-year transformations show the following holdovers in the short-term evolution of the team:

Members of both the 2000 and 2005 New England Patriots: QB Tom Brady, WR Troy Brown, LB Tedy Bruschi, LB Matt Chatham, RB Kevin Faulk, LB Willie McGinest, RB Patrick Pass, C Lonie Paxton, K Adam Vinatieri, OL Damien Woody.

Members of both the 2001 and 2006 Patriots: Brady, Brown, Bruschi, Faulk, Pass, Paxton, OL Matt Light, DL Richard Seymour, LB Mike Vrabel, P Ken Walter.

Members of both the 2002 and 2007 Patriots: Brady, Brown, Bruschi, Faulk, Light, Pass, Paxton, Seymour, Vrabel, DE Jarvis Green, OG Russ Hochstein, LB Larry Izzo, OG Steve Neal.

Ignoring the asterisk for Walter in 2001/2006 (the punter was actually cut by the Pats after 2003 and re-signed during the ’06 season) while assuming Belichick and/or most of his brain trust gives a range of 10-13 players who manage to stick over a five-year period. With this fact and the tendencies in mind, we can imagine that the 2013 Patriots might include ...

The Patriots for life (prays the front office). It all begins and ends with Tom Brady, doesn’t it? Taken for granted is the motivation for Brady to stick around as long as The Hooded One, who saw the potential in an unheralded University of Michigan quarterback at the beginning of the decade, does. Brady has shown his dedication to team by restructuring his deal a la Peyton Manning so that New England would have the leeway to make the ridiculous moves made in the offseason of 2007.

Against the shakeups the defense may experience going into 2008, though, some stability on this side of the ball would be nice for the medium-term future as well. Reckon Patriots management to do everything in its power to hold onto nose tackle Vince Wilfork. The former first-rounder came into his own in his sophomore year of 2005 with 91 tackles, was All-Pro in 2007 and Pro Bowl-bound in 2008. Though Wilfork will turn 33 during the 2013 season and the oldest D-lineman currently listed on the roster (Kenny Smith) is 30, keeping Wilfork around for five more years isn’t unimaginable as the team addresses other needs through the coming years.

Today’s young players, tomorrow’s veterans. Now this is the most speculative bit within the speculation, but assuming David Thomas gets his career back on track after most of 2007 was spent either on PUP or IR lists; Thomas came up strong late in 2006 and has to be considered – again, assuming he stays healthy – the heir apparent to Ben Watson.

On the defense, it takes a little squinting and some guesswork to reckon safety Brandon Meriweather will stick around, but three facts are important to consider here: The first-round draft pick had an excellent season mostly on special teams in 2007; some continuity must be maintained in secondary; and the popularly perceived discipline problem has kept his nose clean in the NFL.

As is always the case after the draft, hype is high on many of the rookies in Patriot camp, and early on Jerrod Mayo, Matthew Slater, and Shawn Crable are all being promoted by PR as the real deal. Most A.B. era first-rounders stick around for some time – Watson, Seymour, Wilfork, Watson, Ty Warren and now-departed Daniel Graham each served at least five seasons in New England – so Mayo gets a spot on our 2013 Patriots.

The 2008 draft was all about rebuilding the linebacker corps, so if Crable sticks around, the future will say Belichick & Co. pulled quite a coup this year, but a linebacking unit which includes Mayo, Crable and Bo Ruud is certainly the immediate goal anyway. Terrence Wheatley’s included here along with Meriweather for, again, reasons of continuity in the secondary. (Seeing how disloyal Patriots management has been to flashy CBs in the recent future, though, doesn’t exactly ensure Wheatley’s future on the team beyond his first low-ball contract extension.)

Meanwhile, Slater’s versatility in having played four positions as a UCLA Bruin, his NFL pedigree as son of Hall of Fame O-lineman Jackie Slater, and most of all his early signing has the Foxborough faithful already proclaiming this fifth-rounder as the steal of 2008 draft. Why not? Slater certainly sounds like a typical Belichick Patriot.

To be re-upped after contract expiration in 2012. As of now – and talk about your long-term speculation – the Patriots have four players slated to become free agents in 2012: Meriweather, Dan Koppen, Adalius Thomas and Wes Welker. Again, a little generosity is being given the New England front-office folks, but it says here that the Patriots will re-sign four of these guys.

With Welker by that time surely to be universally acknowledged as the best slot receiver out there, the only thing keeping him from eventual entry into the Patriot Hall of Fame is injury. And the easy money says that if Brady has anything to say about it, Welker will be getting a fat extension in ’12.

Ain’t goin’ anywhere. Of the current brilliant offensive line (performance in Super Bowl XLII notwithstanding), figure Koppen to stick around at least. This “local” hero (Koppen was actually born in Dubuque, Iowa) starred for three years at Boston College, accumulating much hype in the six-state region. He was then drafted by the Pats, hastily took often for an injured Damien Woody in his rookie year, and proceeded to start at center for the Patriots through two Super Bowl wins. Koppen’s already been extended through 2011 and until Iowa City gets an NFL team, why would he leave?

Surely Patriot backers are hoping Mankins stays on the New England line as well; yet another first-round score, Mankins has been a starter since Day 1 and has been a Pro Bowl-level player since. When his contract expires, Mankins will essentially demand whatever he wants. The Patriots will pay it.

Finally, there’s Stephen Gostkowski. Figure he’ll stick around through Super Bowl LXVII, etches his name in the Patriots record books, and foster a generation of Boston kids who never heard of Adam Vinatieri.

Formulating five-year plans throughout the year at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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