Considering Patriots for 2008 fantasy drafts

By Os Davis  |   Monday, July 07, 2008  |  Comments( 5 )

New England Patriots
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Yours truly just received his first official invite to a fantasy draft. The conversation went something like the following; players are myself and Paul, league commissioner/St. Louis Rams fan.

Paul: Blah blah ... throw in a few bucks ... blah blah ... drink lots of beer at the Iguana ... blah blah ... and we’d love to have ya.
Os: All right, but I’m pretty bad at fantasy football.
Paul: Then we’d really love to have ya.

Right, then. This fantasy owner is determined not to be there for the having in 2008 (again). In considering, reconsidering and re-reconsidering every single statistical contributor on every NFL team, Os Davis’ mighty fighting Os Holes (thank you for the franchise moniker, Raider Nation) will start analysis from the top down; namely, the statistical goldmine known as the New England Patriots.

Last year, Patriots helped shred fantasy leagues through mind-boggling individual statistical performances. Happy (and often dominant) campers were those who drafted/protected Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and even the Patriot ‘D’ for the 2007 season; it was nice to know that you’d consistently have one of the top two or three performances at three starting spots every week, wasn’t it?

Though seemingly guaranteed of performances somewhat less than crushing in 2008, several Patriots appear well draftable. Here’s a penciled in peek at the Os Holes’ incredibly ephemeral game plan for draft day vis-à-vis the Patriots.

(Note: Any mention of fantasy points are derived from the system used by the RealFootball365.com in-house league's host, including one point for 25 yards passing; one point for 10 yards receiving/rushing; six points for a touchdown passed/run/caught; three points for field goal; one point for XP; minus-2 points for fumble/interception.)

Tom Brady. The official RealFootball365.com calculator was put through the paces a little while ago, so greater speculation on how low Brady’s numbers might/must go can be found here.

In brief, important factors include the pass-happy play-calling ratio of 2007 (607 passing plays against 451 running plays), an incredible 21 percent increase on Bill Belichick’s previously highest passing offense of 2003. Assuming the Patriots trim the pass bits of the playbook a bit and/or Brady throws 21 percent less effectively still produces a season of over 20 fantasy points per game; such a performance would have been better than anyone in the NFL last season except for LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and Tony Romo.

Will Brady be just 79 percent as effective as he was in 2007? Here’s to thinking he will.

In neither league has draft order been set, but because it has been proclaimed (ahem) elsewhere on this Web site that Brady should be considered as high as No. 3 in smaller leagues, then consider him the Os Holes’ announced choice should the team be drafting any lower than No. 2 in an eight-team RF365 league. As for Paul’s league, the Holes could jump at Brady with a low second-round pick; they may have to. Assessment: Draft whenever possible; should be the first quarterback taken in any league.

Randy Moss. Moss was slated to be the top fantasy WR going into the 2004 season; remember that? Seemingly redeemed in 2007 with a record-besting year, Moss is again atop the NFL’s receiver heap and why not? The Brady-to-Moss battery is nearly flat-out unstoppable; despite creative attempts by defenses to create double- and triple-teams as the season wore on, Moss still averaged 17 fantasy points per game after the Patriots’ bye in Week 10.

Overall, Moss accounted for 31 percent of Brady’s yardage, 46 percent of his TD passes, and produced 17.6 fantasy points per week all by himself. His nearest competition at WR? Terrell Owens at 14. (One %#@^&&%^$$er in last year’s RF365 league somehow managed to land them both; my head’s still spinning over that one.) Even with a 21 percent reduction in statistical production (see above), Moss is still over 14.5 fantasy points per game. Assessment: Your No. 1 wide receiver.

Wes Welker. The Os Holes were that team in the RF365 league: That perspicacious team that saw the potential in the sleeper from Miami. (Hey, some bragging room here, please; Welker’s the only dude aside from backup quarterback Jeff Garcia who exceeded expectations for the Holes.) But even those who saw an immediate future in Welker didn’t think he’d turn in the single best season at slot receiver in the league.

The good news/bad news was that Welker was typically a low-round pick last year (we got him in Round 12) and Welker owners were mostly pleased of the pleasantly surprised variety. A big minus for Welker in this year’s fantasy draft is that he’s no unknown; more negative is the fact that he’s ultimately not a huge stat guy, representing an inconsistent average of 7.8 points per game. Take out Weeks 6 and 7 – those may have been the last weeks the Holes won – in which Welker bagged 24 and 25 fantasy points, respectively, and that average per game dips to 5.4.

Maybe the lack of Donte’ Stallworth will help, but one can’t really imagine Welker getting more receptions...Assessment: Invaluable to the Patriots, still passable ‘til late for fantasy owners.

Laurence Maroney. Every year in Patriot Land recently, they’re surely wondering what Maroney will do this season, and if his Antowain Smith-like breakout will arrive. Last season, the Pats finished ninth overall in rushing attempts and fifth in rushing TDs. And even despite the Sammy Morris injury, Maroney still went for just 8.3 fantasy points in the 13 games he played, about 6.7 averaged out over 16. Assessment: Perhaps a mid-round No. 3 running back.

The defense. In terms of fantasy, the defense was just about every bit as monstrous as the offensive positions in 2007. Running up a fearsome 47 sacks to go with 19 picks and 14 fumble recoveries meant more than seven fantasy points per game alone, and in 10 of 16 games, the Patriot ‘D’ held opponents under 20 points – the magic number in many fantasy leagues – thereby making the mean 2007 New England performance worth over 11 points. (How many non-QB/RB players could say that last season?)

Of course, it is taken for granted that the defense just won’t be nearly as good in 2007, what with the shuffling due at linebacker, and the critical makeover of the secondary. Particularly hard hit figures to be that interception total: Asante Samuel and Randall Gay accounted for nine of those 19 Patriot interceptions and Junior Seau added another three; the former two are departed and Seau is still a question mark.

In counterbalance, no significant departures were made in the Pro Bowl-level defensive line and giving speedy youngsters like Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable and Bo Ruud (should they prove competent) playing time will only increase the pressure in the pass rush; it wouldn’t be surprising to see another 40-plus sack season out of New England, even while giving up points in bunches on occasionally successful deep strikes.

This mixed bag of a defense comprised of familiar vets and unknown quantities for the first time in six seasons makes the Patriot ‘D’ less than a sure thing. Several fantasy defenses will be more sought after than New England’s; off the top of the head, there’s, what, the Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers? On the positive side, the Patriots’ schedule features a number of low-watt offenses upon which to beat.

In 2008, reckon it’ll be no shame having to start the New England fantasy defense, but the unit could be the single most-coveted backup in the entire league. Assessment: Your second-string ‘D’ in all leagues; a starter in deeper leagues if drafting late.

Assessing, ever assessing throughout the year at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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CommentsComments: 5  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
nhartman		05:36 PM
07/07/2008
In an eight team league I see taking Brady after number 2, but in a 10 or a 12, I can't see taking him until after 6, since there...
No.2
06:08 PM
07/07/2008
You can take Brady early if you want, theres always depth at positions like RB and WR and sense now most teams use a 2 back...
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No.3
RedskinFan21ST		06:21 PM
07/07/2008
People can't expect Brady, Moss, or Welker to even have similiar numbers as least season. All of these guys had career years,...
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