Lies, damn lies and Brady’s statistics

By Os Davis  |   Friday, October 20, 2006  |  Comments( 3 )

New England Patriots
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You get bored during bye weeks, and idle minds are the numerologist's plaything. Football is a game that defies statistics, and the constantly morphing New England Patriots of Bill Belichick evade the "truth" of facts and figures better than most.

Given New England's nice division, easy schedule and the calm confidence of a multiple-time top dog, Patriots backers have no reason to panic. However, one truth the numbers do show is that Tom Brady's numbers are down early in the season.

The most telling statistic on Brady's player card this season is his 54.3 completion rate, a jarring drop when considering that his number has hung consistently within 2.5 points of his 61.4 career average. Brady currently ranks 23rd in completions, 17th in attempts and 21st in yardage: literally below-average marks against a seemingly pass-happy 2006 NFL. The truth in these numbers is that the departures of David Givens and Deion Branch - dudes who accounted for 41 percent of Brady's completions and 47 percent of Pats' passing yardage - hurt. Another truth: The Patriots' almighty system may not be infinitely malleable.

But the Patriots' success this year has been (and will continue to be) due to the man at the helm. Though nearly all his numbers are down and his QB rating places him 16th in the NFL, Brady has one tiny little digit that heartens New Englanders no matter how unrecognizable this roster becomes: 3. As in three interceptions. That's in 154 attempts and against eight touchdowns; such control has managed to keep the club even in turnover differential while keeping the Patriots in every game, low-wattage offense or no. The truth these numbers tell: Brady - reasonably solid 'D' and Laurence Maroney's breakout aside - carries even more of this team's weight than is apparent.

Here's another key stat increasingly relevant in the 21st century sports world: $4 million. When Brady resigned with the Patriots in the offseason, he signed a deal of "only" $60 million, approximately $4 million per season less than Peyton Manning and an incredible $3 million less than Michael Vick. Why? Because "[an extra million] might be more important to the team." The deal was ostensibly done with the implied promise that the Pats would go out and seek support, even possibly knowing in May that Branch wouldn't be back. Who'd they get? Junior Seau? The truth of these numbers: Well, something about a fool and his money, or maybe a sucker.

Although there are two I's in statistics, there are, as the cliché goes, none in team. And the most important numbers on the sports pages are wins and losses, statistical areas in which the Patriots are sitting pretty. The light competition the team has faced has helped provide the Pats a 4-1 record; the quartet New England has beaten has a cumulative record of 9-14.

This writer sticks by the opinion that, in the short-term, the Patriots' dynasty isn't going away thanks to a most generous slate of games, particularly in December. Ironically and paradoxically enough, in Brady's numbers the seeds of the team's ultimate destruction may sit. Here's a guy who is depended on more, given less support, may earn his team a high playoff spot by dint of puff divisional opponents, and will probably see a decrease in hard numbers. What impetus, the front office may someday argue again, is there to resign veteran X or go get free agent Y? And someday Belichick's system will be stretched to its limits. Snap goes the dynasty.

Of course, this may all be a tricky evil force manipulating an idle mind. Or maybe the devil in the details...

Follow how far Tom Brady takes the New England Patriots in 2006 at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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CommentsComments: 3  |  Sign Up  View all comments
No.1
Pat K.		11:16 AM
10/20/2006
Eat your words, you guys repeatedly called for the end of the Patriots dynasty leading up to this season. How's that crow?
No.2
jgagnon		01:15 PM
10/26/2006
its been a few years now & you guys still do not get it.... you are so dumb Brady constantly "works" to improve himself... the...
No.3
P Cortez		12:02 AM
10/29/2006
"PROBABLY see a decrease", "MAY SOMEDAY argue again", "SOMEDAY Belichick's system will be stretched to its limits".....All I read...
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