Wanna bet on the Patriots game?

By Os Davis  |   Friday, December 08, 2006  |  Comments( 3 )

New England Patriots
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If you're reading this, it means that I am dead. Or I've placed any sort of monetary wager in the Miami Dolphins-New England Patriots game. Whichever comes first. Tell you what: Anyone short of the magic Foxborough imp -- which turns dudes like Reche Caldwell into Lynn Swann three or four times a game -- who bets the line on this one is on the fast track to Coronary Country. With no otherworldly guide to assist, how to play the "at Miami plus-3.5" line?

(In case you're wondering about the RealFootball crystal ball, it's nowhere to be found. Apparently, Randy Savoie pilfered it, surely part of an attempt at replicating the insane voodoo ritual that resulted in Reggie Bush's inhuman performance last Sunday.)

Though this "rivalry" is a galloping ghost of its former self in the days of Bob Griese and Steve Grogan, the "Snowplow Game," and Boston's reputation as the sports heartbreak capital of the world, Miami-New England games have been odd in the A.B. (After Belichick/Brady) Era.

Last year's New Year's Day matchup between the Pats and 'Phins will perhaps ultimately go down in Boston sports history as "The Dropkick Game," with USFL/CFL/NFL veteran Doug Flutie executing the dropkick extra point, a play not performed since 1964 that earned the quarterback the nod for "Special Teams Player of the Week." Belichick's unprecedented bit of fun was due to the Pats being locked in at the No. 4 playoff seed. (Sudden thought: Is Vinny Testaverde secretly keeping his kicking foot loose for Week 17?) The then-surging Dolphins at 8-7 managed to pull out a 28-26 victory over the mostly second-string Patriots led by QB Matt Cassel.

A real slap in the face came to the Patriots in 2004. At 12-1, New England looked like the quite the unstoppable force. At 2-11, well, not even Florida sports journalists were calling the Dolphins "surging" then. The contest proved the dreaded maxim, "Games are played on the field," and Miami ultimately produced a highlight video's worth of sacks and stops. Tom Brady threw four interceptions, the Dolphins squeaked by 29-28 behind A.J. Feeley's pick-free passing, "Sportscenter" had a top story for most of the following week, and lots of football pools were lost by those who laughingly took the double-digit favorites.

The 2002 season closed with perhaps the last time the teams met on a meaningful occasion. The Patriots had played uncharacteristically sloppily the previous week against the New York Jets and straight-up horribly against the Tennessee Titans, but could conceivably stumble their way into the playoffs. The Dolphins roared out to a 5-1 start (including a win over New England in Miami) that season and booked playoff tickets early. By the time Week 17 rolled around, though, the Dolphins found themselves at just 9-6, tied with division mates New York and one game up on New England.

When all was said and done, the Patriots put together a now-expected comeback replete with requisite field goal from Adam Vinatieri to win a 27-24 nail-biter after going down 21-7 in the second quarter. The AFC finished with five teams tied at 9-7 and three in the East. When the tiebreakers shook everything out, the Jets and the Cleveland Browns advanced to the playoffs.

So much for history. Still poring over that 3.5 points? Me, too. It wasn't always this hard to bet on the Pats. Once The Run began after the loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2001, it was easy: Not until Week 3 of the 2002 season would the Patriots be the Vegas line favorites. Eleven straight wins including the playoffs as the underdog meant 11 straight wins for those who took the Patriots with the points. In the 2004 season, the Patriots won by double figures 11 times and covered the line in every one of their 14 wins.

Against the spread this season, the Patriots are an uninspiring 6-6. While last season was the ultimate demonstration in Belichick's "just enough to win" philosophy and New England outscoring opponents by just 41 points, this season is nearly just as excruciating. Six Patriot games this season have been decided by a touchdown or less, including four of the last five. Are you sure this one's not going to go down to the wire? You wanna bet?

No, seriously, do you? Because there is one excellent betting opportunity. Well, good. OK, decent. Take the under. Right now, it's just under the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs-Baltimore Ravens games at 37.

Sure, it sounds crazy, what with the No. 8 scoring offense in the NFL against the once-again "surging" Dolphins, but there is one glaring statistic Vegas probably doesn't want you to know about: In only three games has New England been over this year. Last week, the Patriots-Detroit Lions game hit the over against the high 42.5 line. It was the first time the navy blue-and-silver beat the line since the Oct. 1 blowout at the Cincinnati Bengals.

Yep, take the under. That's a safe bet. Unless the line is so low as compensation for its artificial high numbers on the Patriots all year...

Prediction: New England 19, Miami 16. But there's no way I'm putting money on it.

(Hey, you want to bet we see Mark Henderson highlight clip?)

RealFootball365.com: In no way encouraging emphatically illegal gambling on the New England Patriots or any other sports team.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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