Here’s why the Patriots snap the streak on Sunday

By Os Davis  |   Thursday, November 01, 2007  |  Comments( 10 )

New England Patriots
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It's fire vs. water, unstoppable force vs. immovable object, dogs vs. cats ... however you want to approach the mammoth New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup this Sunday, you're prepared for a titanic battle that most figure to go down to the wire.

But this writer reckons that isn't necessarily so. As good as the Colts look (and boy, they look fantastic), the Patriots hold all the cards in this one. The Pats' poker hand of advantages looks something like the following.

Brady to Moss. No one has had an answer for Randy Moss this season. The badder No. 81 has habitually beaten zone coverage, man coverage, double coverage ... perhaps opposition defenses should try triple coverage, though this may also be futile, as we've yet seen anyone in any secondary quick enough to keep up with him. Yes, guys like Kelvin Hayden, Antoine Bethea and especially Bob Sanders are no slouches; this trio could well shut down Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker, but Moss? No answer. In recent meetings, Indy's shut down no-name New England receivers to the point of Brady looking to less-than-household targets like David Thomas. Not this time. Not with the Brady-to-Moss connection.

With this offense, less effort needs to be expended on Peyton Manning. For the Patriots, the secret to playing Manning hasn't been a secret at all. On passing downs, the 3-4 formation applies minimal pressure, while nearly everyone drops back into coverage, with corners already having been backed off 5-10 yards. Manning simply isn't gonna run, and for years, Bill Belichick's shifting defensive schemes confused Manning and the boys.

But no longer. Manning's accuracy has actually improved over time and the dude has become the master of the medium-range in route; there's simply nothing anyone - including those northeastern masterminds - can do but apply the best possible bend-but-don't-break philosophy and hope Indy doesn't keep your 'D' on the field for most of the third quarter. (Ahem.) The last time these two teams met, the Colts hung 38 on the Pats. And you may see that again. Of course, this time, the New England 'O' has an answer.

Too many Patriots are hot right now. It's not just that the team is running like a well-oiled machine, but players are winning the individual battles as well. Wes Welker is having a career year. Vince Wilfork and Junior Seau look fantastic. Mike Vrabel, already an All-Pro, is playing out of his mind in 2007. The offensive line has allowed fewer sacks than any team excepting Indy and the New Orleans Saints. Asante Samuel has returned to last season's form.

And what's that? You say the Patriots have no running game? Well, Sammy Maroney Faulk isn't performing too shabbily, averaging 112.6 yards on about 24 carries per game for 4.67 yards per attempt.

They're gonna go at Tony Ugoh. Ugoh has received kudos for stepping in as a rookie at left tackle to help fill the void left by Tarik Glenn's departure. However, Ugoh has been battling a nagging injury lately - he sat out the Carolina game - and has seen nothing like the Pats' front line this season. Here's a theory: Belichick is going to call for pressure on Ugoh from Wilfork and Ty Warren, and endless rushes from Vrabel and Adalius Thomas. Notice how they schooled Chris Samuels last week? Ugoh's next.

Awareness of history. Many reckon that the Patriots' overwhelming success this season comes in part from Belichick's drive to write his name in the history books. In the A.B. (After Brady/Belichick) Era, NFL aficionados take it for granted that the Pats are the most studied and intelligent of all NFL teams. The Colts have won the last three; you think the Pats don't know that?

Prediction: The Patriots win. And handily. By like, 10 or 11. And everyone hates them all the more.

Anticipating every NFL game as though it were Colts-Patriots at RealFootball365.com
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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