On Draft Day, what are the odds …?

By Os Davis  |   Tuesday, April 22, 2008  |  Comments( 8 )

Oakland Raiders
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The draft is coming! The draft is coming! With every NFL fan worth his or her salt prepping for the weekend and finalizing predictions (all the better to brag at you with), it’s almost like the regular season out there.

In fact ... beer, check. Reams’ worth of stat sheets, check. Other gear, check. Money down in order to earn some more scratch from my encyclopedic knowledge of the game ...

Well, now you can check that one off the list as well. Yes, RealFootball365.com realizes that gambling and football don’t mix. (It’s kinda like chocolate and peanut butter: Two great tastes that ... oh, forget it.) After all, who would willingly throw hard-earned money at frivolously predicting the results of the 2008 NFL Draft?

Many. Proof comes in the form of Bodog.com (surely among others), which is kind enough to supply scads of prop bets for your gaming pleasure this weekend. Where’s the money for Raiders fans?

Props Bodog.com: “Who will the Oakland Raiders take with the No. 4 pick in the NFL Draft?” Odds provided are:

Darren McFadden, 4-5
Chris Long, 3-1
Vernon Gholston, 4-1
Glenn Dorsey, 17-4
the field, 11-4.

The immediate question here is obvious: Why are people adjusting their mock drafts to shoehorn McFadden into the Raiders’ spot at No. 4? Raider Nation, is this really what you want after re-signing all-around good guy Justin Fargas, who enjoyed a breakout year in 2007? Why are the pundits and talking heads so sold on ignoring the needs on OL and DL?

A couple of other interesting notes on this particular prop: When the lines opened, Dorsey and Gholston were thought equally likely to land with Oakland, but betting has shifted Dorsey slightly downward. Vernon Gholston at No. 4? Sure, why not?

Then, of course, there is the Chris Long question. Bodog has closed betting on the Miami Dolphins (thank you, Jeff Ireland) and St. Louis Rams’ picks. For the Atlanta Falcons at No. 3, Bodog has Dorsey and Matt Ryan equally favored at 1-1; Long ranks a lowly 4-1, felt to be as probable as “the field” for the troubled Blackbirds. For Kansas City at No. 5, Long is part of “the field” and is thus 9-2 to join the Chiefs.

Surely if Long is available at No. 4, and now it seems only St. Louis stands in the way of Howie’s son being available; he’s a no-brainer for the Raiders, right? Those rumors about Uncle Al and Howie can’t possibly be true, can they? Anyone interested in going in with me on this?

One of the most interesting prop bets going on at Bodog requires you to predict regarding predictions. “Which ESPN NFL analyst will have the most correct selections on their final 2008 NFL draft first round mock draft?” goes the question; Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay are going off even at 6-5.

Kiper Jr., of whose pre-draft predictions employer ESPN notes “are frequently the most accurate” (giggle), currently has McFadden for the Raiders over Gholston and Jake Long. McShay is currently opting for the happy-ending-to-all choices and concludes with Dorsey on the Raiders. In McShay’s world, Ryan goes to the Dolphins at Mo. 1, Chris Long gets with the Rams, and Jake goes to Atlanta; McFadden ends up with the Jets and Gholston with the Patriots.

McShay’s world feels much too easy; plus, you can count this columnist among those convinced that Miami will in fact go for Dorsey with the No. 1 overall. As for well-hyped Kiper Jr., looking back makes him look more than a tad biased (and therefore unrealistic) toward skill-position players in mock drafts. To cite one mere example, check out the man putting Koren Robinson – Koren Robinson! – at No. 3 overall in 2001! And he’s got another wide receiver, David Terrell, at No. 7!

(In the interests of fairness, props to Kiper Jr. for the good call on Jason Campbell in 2005.)

Finally, in good old-fashioned betting, the Raiders are 100-1 to take Super Bowl XLIII, making the silver and black a longer shot than all others save Kansas City (100-1) and Atlanta (150-1). Oakland is 50-1 to win the AFC in 2008 and is just 10-1 to take the AFC West; somewhat inexplicably, the Chiefs are going off at 9-1.

So it’s 4-5 on McFadden, 4-5 that the Raiders will become redundant at halfback, 4-5 that they take up another huge contract demanding playing time for Lane Kiffin and Al Davis to potentially wrangle over. Are the bookies saying Raiders Inc. is odds-on irrational?

By the way, what’s the over/under on Kiffin’s termination date?

RealFootball365.com does not condone gambling of any sort, except for harmless legal forms such as lottery tickets, office pools, stock market speculation, casino blackjack, etc.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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CommentsComments: 8  |  Sign Up  View all comments
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No.1
10:46 AM
04/22/2008
Who ever the Raiders take, we'll still be bashed by all the so called experts. If we don't take Mcfadden (If availiable) and he...
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No.2
11:46 AM
04/22/2008
Kiffin has a better chance to be the RAIDERS head football coach then you writing with any integrity Os... From yesterday's...
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No.3
jer		02:22 PM
04/22/2008
With those odds, I would put my money on Dorsey. I think he may just be available and I dont think Al will pick McFadden. Too...
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