Measuring up JaMarcus

By Os Davis  |   Tuesday, November 04, 2008  |  Comments( 49 )

Oakland Raiders
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In the wake of utter demolition at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons, those Oakland Raiders fans not too stunned to speak are asking themselves lots of questions today. Questions echoed in the blogosphere and media. Questions like, “What can be done about this?” and “How bad is JaMarcus Russell, really?” and “Is Uncle Al really crazy enough to bring in Michael Vick in 2009?”

While the first query of the three has become no less than nearly a daily theme for myself and Coach Carroll’s RealFootball365.com columns, the second required a little research and number-crunching. To the stats, Robin!

After Sunday’s debacle, Russell has now appeared in 12 NFL games, starting nine. At 141 completions in 282 attempts, his completion percentage is exactly 50.0; Russell has notched eight TD strikes against eight interceptions and has totaled 1,662 passing yards. Overall, his career quarterback rating is a brutal 65.94.

So what can nine starts, a dozen games, mean to a prospective NFL career? In finding basis for comparison, the best news for Raider backers is that Russell can hardly be labeled a bust, but trigger time ain’t far away.

On one side of the success spectrum is today’s measuring stick for the NFL quarterback, Peyton Manning. When Manning was first stuffed into the role of starter for the Indianapolis Colts from the University of Tennessee, he met with rather, um, limited success on a woeful 3-13 team. For his first nine starts, Manning eked out a 76.75 QB rating; of course, against Russell’s average 2008 line of 13-for-26 for 161 yards, one TD and one interception, the individual statistics are way bloated on Manning’s side, as he led the league in attempts with 575 in his rookie year. Manning’s QB rating for 1998 was ultimately just 71.2.

So how about brother Eli, football universally thought to have been a much slower learner than Peyton? Like Russell, Eli Manning was a No. 1 overall pick saddled with a pre-rookie season controversy. (Funny how soon it's forgotten the way Eli pouted his way his way out of the San Diego Chargers a la John Elway.) In contrast, Eli would debut for a New York Giants team also possessing a proven and still-viable veteran quarterback, unlike Russell and the Raiders. Unless you count Daunte Culpepper. And you don’t.

In 2004, Eli Manning saw action in nine games, going 1-6 as a starter – shades of Russell’s current 2-7. Manning played lots of small ball for the Giants that year and compiled an average starting performance of 13-for-27 for 140 yards, just over one interception and just under one TD pass. Sound familiar?

Differences between Russell’s situation and those of the Mannings? Sure, a few. Receiving immediately comes to mind when comparing the 2008 Raiders to the past Colts and Giants teams. Peyton walked onto a squad with young but already deadly weapons in Marshall Faulk, who contributed 900-plus yards receiving (!) to the QB’s rookie season, and Marvin Harrison. The 2004 Giants weren’t exactly bogged down with megastars in the receiving corps, but having targets in Amani Toomer, Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey helped Eli’s cause.

And no discussion of the 2008 Raider passing game would be complete without mentioning the ridiculously slack play from the offensive line. You want some difference between Russell’s lot and the Mannings’? Here’s one: In 16 games, Peyton Manning took 21 sacks; in Eli’s first nine, he hit turf statistically 13 times. Russell has been sacked 22 times in eight games this season. Twenty-two freaking times in eight games! Quickly doing the math, that would be ... um ... 44 for the season! Yeesh.

As for an immediate, 2008-style comparison, one needn’t go any further in checking out the numbers (and success) getting run up by Sunday’s opposing quarterback, Matt Ryan. A No. 3 overall essentially starting his rookie season at the same time Russell essentially began his own, Ryan is smoking Russell in every statistical category while more importantly carrying his Atlanta Falcons to a terrific 5-3 first half: After the Oakland visit, Ryan is up to 58.6 completion percentage and a pretty impressive 85.43 QB rating.

And it’s not like his offensive line is brilliant: Ryan’s taken 12 sacks. Nor is the Falcons’ group of receivers particularly stunning outside of maybe Roddy White, whose stats were nicely fluffed in the Raider game.

Finally, in measuring Russell up against other recent bonus babies, one more dig into the recent past is necessary (and apologies in advance for comparing your silver and black to the 'L' word again, Raider Nation).

Consider the recent case of Joey Harrington, if you will.

In 2002, Harrington was a No. 3 overall draft pick of the Detroit Lions. He appeared in 14 games that year, starting 12. Though his first eight for the lowly Lions, Harrington managed a sliver under 50 percent completion rate (148-for-300) and a QB rating of 57.69 – number for number, just a wee bit worse than Russell. The key difference (and maybe the sole ray of hope for Raider backers) is interceptions.

From the go, Harrington was able to make Vinny Testaverde look like Jeff Garcia, tossing 1.5 picks per game throughout 2002 and beyond. The most positive aspect of the Russell experience thus far has been his relative ability to avoid throwing the interception. Of course, Russell’s not attempting 38 passes per game, either. Yet.

The verdict? Though the odds are seemingly against Russell morphing into a Manning, at least it’s fairly clear he is hardly a bust. What’s disturbing for the Raider Nation when looking back at some young ‘uns who became champions has to be the state of the current Oakland team: Highly paid early first-rounders like the Mannings joined teams with at least some functioning parts on offense, whether it was a veteran quarterback, multidimensional halfback or long-ball threats at wide receiver. Heck, even Harrington’s Lions had a competent line. The Raiders have Zach Miller and a sometimes healthy Darren McFadden.

In fact, the only thing more ominous than the fate of Russell-as-starter is this overall weakness throughout the offense that shows no immediate sign of improvement.

Unless it’s the possibility of Michael Vick coming aboard for 2009 ...
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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