Looking to Week 2 for clues

By Os Davis  |   Thursday, November 27, 2008  |  Comments( 52 )

Oakland Raiders
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Week 2 of the NFL season seems like yesterday, yet it feels like forever ago. Back then, the Oakland Raiders enjoyed their only blowout win of the season by destroying the Kansas City Chiefs, who actually had three quarterbacks see action in that game. In Week 2, after all, Lane Kiffin was still “in charge” of the team and DeAngelo Hall was still starting in the defensive backfield.

Since then the Raiders have seen a few personnel changes and quite a few disappointing performances – thank the gods for small favors, then, like getting the Chiefs scheduled twice a year. Games against Kansas City represent two of the last five Raider wins; if interim head coach Tom Cable was paying attention during the Week 2 game (and evidence suggests he was, with JaMarcus Russell’s pathetic 6-of-17 belying the fact that he was rarely seriously threatened and took zero sacks), there’s no reason Oakland shouldn’t notch him his second win over the hapless club.

What did Cable see in the first Kansas City meeting that he should be using this Sunday? The following is probably a good list with which to start.

• Run, Darren, run. While Russell struggled in target practice, McFadden was an animal against the Chiefs, going for 164 yards and a TD, while the Raider threesome of McFadden/Justin Fargas/Michael Bush went for 6.4 yards per carry.

The good news for Oakland is that Kansas City has shown no improvement against the running game (or on defense at all, for that matter). Statistics show the Chiefs to be dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt, second worst in total rushing yardage and touchdowns, and 29th “best” in rushing attempts. They’re nearly as pathetic against the pass (rock bottom again, in fact, in aerial yardage allowed), but even assuming Russell does his worst – which Week 2 pretty much was – the recovered McFadden and the hyperactive Fargas should have a heck of a day without a QB.

• Exploit that imbalance between the Raider offensive line and the Kansas City D-line. The only time of the year the current Oakland offensive line can claim to have the edge are these blessed weekends against the record-threatening Chiefs.

Sure, Kansas City may have appeared to score big with the drafting of Glenn Dorsey with the early first-round draft pick, but despite the dinged-up Dorsey’s contributions (one sack and would you believe he’s second on the Chiefs in tackles for loss with three?), Kansas City is far away from boasting a competent, pressure-creating line. Incredibly, the Chiefs are on pace to total fewer than eight sacks for 2008; such slacking should make Robert Gallery and the boys look good for once.

Now if only good JaMarcus shows up ...

• Buckle down for the second half. At the end of 30 minutes in the Week 2 game, it was 6-0 in favor of Oakland before Kiffin tweaked the game plan to take the ball out of Russell’s hands. In that game, just seven of Russell’s 17 attempts came in the second half; three of these were on the opening three-and-out “drive” in the third quarter, and Russell threw only twice in the fourth quarter. As a result, the Raiders outscored the Chiefs 17-8 in the second 30 minutes to win.

So call it the halftime anti-adjustment: Since their bye in Week 6, the Chiefs have been outscored by nearly double in the second half in six consecutive losses, 99-53. It appears as though you don’t have to run up the points on Kansas City, though many teams have refused to resist the temptation, as the average score of a 2008 Chiefs game has been a 30-18 Kansas City loss. In the last half-dozen, that average final score is 33-22 but average halftime would be Opponents 16, Chiefs 13.

A simple formula for Cable and friends: Put up just one TD more than the Chiefs in the second half and win the game.

Official RealFootball365.com prediction. In what could well be their final win of the 2008 season, Raiders top Chiefs, 21-10.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's...
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