At 30, Alexander’s no conventional running back

By Chris Cluff  |   Thursday, July 05, 2007  |  Comments( 2 )

Seattle Seahawks
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Shaun Alexander will be 30 in August, which of course means the end of his career is near, right?

That's what conventional wisdom has always said: Running backs fade fast after the age of 30.

But it hasn't always been true, and the Seattle Seahawks' ace back will probably prove to be an exception to the rule for several reasons: (1) He has fewer carries (and thus fewer hits) than many marquee backs had before they turned 30; (2) he has always been good at avoiding big hits and until last season had never had a major injury; (3) he has a good backup, which can help limit his carries.

Alexander has 1,969 carries through his first seven seasons and, before suffering a broken foot last year, he had run off five straight seasons with at least 1,000 rushing yards. If he hadn't missed six games last season, Alexander would have finished with 1,433 yards (projecting his 896 yards in 10 games over a full 16-game season). As odd as it might seem, the broken foot actually saved Alexander almost half a season's worth of beatings and probably added another year to a career that already had one redshirt campaign (Alexander carried the ball just 64 times as a rookie behind Ricky Watters).

In comparison to other great running backs from the recent past, Alexander should be quite fresh and frisky for another three seasons or so.

Guys like Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and Curtis Martin all had more carries before age 30 than Alexander has, and yet they kept going for at least two more seasons. Smith had 2,914 carries before he turned 30 and then ran for 1,397 yards (4.2 per attempt) in his 10th year. He followed that with two more 1,000-yard seasons as he chased Walter Payton's league rushing record.

Payton had 2,666 carries before the big 3-0. Then at 30 he carried a career-high 381 times for 1,684 yards (4.4 average). He followed that with 1,551 yards and 1,333 yards before fading in 1987 at age 33.

Martin had tallied 2,604 carries by the time he turned 30. And at age 31 he put up his best season: 1,697 yards and a 4.6 average on a career-high 371 carries.

Of course, other guys who ran the ball more than 2,000 times in their 20s did not fare as well in their 30s.

Eric Dickerson ran it 2,450 times before 30, tallying seven straight seasons with at least 1,200 yards. But he went downhill fast, with 677 yards at age 30 and three more sub-1,000 seasons before he quit.

Thurman Thomas carried the ball 2,285 times before age 30. He barely got to 1,000 yards (1,033) at age 30, giving him eight straight years with 1,000 or more, and then he became a part-time player over his final four seasons.

Marshall Faulk had logged 2,367 carries by the time he was 30. Injuries and a shared load with Steven Jackson then cut into his production from 2003 to 2005.

Jerome Bettis toted the ball 2,686 times before 30, with eight 1,000-yard seasons in nine years. But after turning 30 in 2002, he started sharing time with other runners; his best season in the final four (2002-05) was 2004, when he rushed 250 times for 941 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The most apt comparisons for Alexander from a carries standpoint, however, are probably O.J. Simpson, Tony Dorsett, Watters and Corey Dillon.

Simpson had 1,997 carries before he turned 30. And he used them well, gaining more than 7,600 yards from 1972 to 1976, including the first 2,000-yard season in league history (2,003 in 1973). But when he turned 30, it was over. After 1,503 yards at age 29 in 1976, he gained just 1,600 yards in his final three years.

Dillon tallied 1,865 carries before 30. And then he had his best season at age 30, rushing for 1,635 yards on a career-high 345 attempts in his first year with New England in 2004. Of course, he faded fast, too, totaling 1,545 yards in his final two years.

Dorsett and Watters had a little more longevity. Dorsett had 1,834 carries before 30 and managed 1,000-yard seasons at ages 30 (1,189) and 31 (1,307) before becoming a part-time back for his final three years. Watters had 1,947 carries before 30, then went over 1,200 yards at 30 and 31 and was headed for another 1,000-yard season in 2001 when he was felled by injury and lost his job for good to Alexander.

Of course, Simpson and Dillon were bruising runners who took their share of hits and paid for it. Dorsett and Watters were more elusive, but they still ran higher than Alexander does - which is yet another reason to expect Alexander to keep going for a few years.

Alexander said it himself in training camp 2005, before he rushed for a league-best 1,880 yards and 28 touchdowns: "You know, I've really been blessed to be able to slide out of tackles."

When he did miss time last year, the Seahawks got an extended look at Alexander's backup, Maurice Morris. After a slow start, the five-year veteran finished his six-game stint as the starter with two 100-yard games. That's the kind of backup support that can ease the burden on Alexander and give him some rest from the pounding.

All Alexander has to do is look to Warrick Dunn and Fred Taylor, who both went over 1,000 yards last season at age 31 and 30, respectively, because they had capable backups.

So while Alexander will turn 30 before the season starts, there are plenty of reasons to think he will keep going strong. He might be 30, but it's not a conventional 30, and it certainly doesn't mean the end of his career is near.

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About Chris Cluff

Chris Cluff spent 10 years as an editor and sportswriter for The Seattle Times. He was a key figure in the newspaper's coverage of the Seahawks, particularly during their Super Bowl run in 2005. He also has written two books on the Seahawks: "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Heart-Pounding, ...
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