The smart money on Titans-Ravens

By Os Davis  |   Thursday, October 02, 2008  |  Comments( 2 )

Tennessee Titans
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Though increasingly misnamed, what with a bankroll which would have evaporated had a few dollars not been pitched at the Buffalo Bills minus-10.5 last Sunday, a column titled “The dumbass money” just simply wouldn’t sell as well to the boss here at RealFootball365.com.

Commentary: In preparation for Week 5 and the desperate ploy to avoid the desecration of what little rep remains, then, this edition of “The Smart Money” features the employment of that greatest addition to behavioral philosophy in the 20th century, namely “Doing the Opposite.”

To get things started in the counterintuitive manner, we’ll begin not with a really easy game a reasonably intelligent invertebrate could call minus any number of points (Cincinnati at Dallas comes immediately to mind, while Chicago and Detroit chases quickly thereafter), but rather the most challenging, tough-to-call, Game of the Week slugfest of Tennessee at Baltimore.

The money line. Whoa, do some of us have no right to be making this bet, eh? (Opposite, Os, do the opposite ...) History tells us that Jeff Fisher’s Titans teams have gone 2-5 against the Ravens since 2000, though are 1-0 in the playoffs in that time. The caveat here is that 1-3 of said record came in four games in 2000 and 2001, the last of the NFL’s six-division format and interestingly the two seasons in which the Titans and Ravens were defending AFC champions.

The most recent meeting was in 2006, a memorable 27-26 squeaker in which Steve McNair led a 20-point comeback; nevertheless, the contest triggered a six-game winning streak for Fisher’s men and a mad late-season rush for a playoff spot. In 2005, the Titans won handily over the Ravens, 25-10, in Week 2 – one of few highlights in a dismal 4-12 season.

But that was then and this is now. The Baltimore defense may be better than ever with Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis playing out of their minds early, while Haloti Ngata and Dawan Landry are blossoming into the All-Pro forces we’ve been expecting since their rookie seasons. Plus, they’re playing at home. The bet: Tennessee.

Over/under. The Tennessee-Baltimore matchup figures to be a knockdown, drag-out, smash-mouth 60 minutes of football. We’re talking about two of the top four defenses (alongside Buffalo and the New York Giants) in the league right now. The Ravens are No. 1 statistically in overall defense and pass 'D' while perched in second against the run; rookie Chris Johnson may be a fantasy football darling right now, but he’s yet to see a defense like this one.

Meanwhile, possibly even lower watt than the Titans with the ball is the Joe Flacco-led 31st-ranked passing attack in Baltimore, which is producing a weak 293 yards per game in total offense. From the University of Delaware to facing off against an all-star front four of Jevon Kearse, Tony Brown, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch ... hmm, think Flacco can engineer a single trip to the red zone? Everything points to a grind-it-out contest that defense-lovers will adore. The bet: Over 33.

Pointspread. Figure it’ll be a close one as well, eh? Me too. The bet: Tennessee, minus-3.

Fantasy Football Impact. At this point, probably Tennessee’s and certainly Baltimore’s DSTs are penciled in as your starter throughout the season. So, you’ll probably want to bench them this week while figuring Kerry Collins to have a particularly huge game. In all seriousness, two items: 1) The biggest fantasy ripoff of last week was the way the Ravens' defense was statistically penalized in many leagues for “allowing” two touchdowns that were directly or indirectly the result of offensive errors; 2) Thank the gods my teams don’t have any of these players this week.

Injury Watch. For Baltimore, Samari Rolle is out and Willis McGahee is best described as day-to-day at this point. And while LenDale White and Justin Gage did not practice with the Titans on Wednesday, Vince Young did.

Fan Pulse. While Dirty Bird watchers at Extreme Ravens exhume memories of Collins in Super Bowl XXXV, Titans fans appear generally a bit more confident about their present-day team and its QBs. And has PitBull of GoTitans.com created the new Nashville mantra?

"**** the ravens. **** the ravens. **** mcnair for becoming McRaven. Mason and Sumari rolle are sellouts. **** em both. and **** their enitre organization from their owner to their team to their fans... **** em all!"

Meanwhile, I’ll have a chicken salad on rye – untoasted! – a side of potato salad and a cup of tea.
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About Os Davis

Os Davis has taken a twisted route to get to RealFootball365.com in his nearly 17 years in professional writing, working in any number of capacities in the sportswriting, news reporting and film criticism worlds. In print media, Os has served as editor at a few publications, including Albuquerque's ...
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