Jared Allen by the numbers

By Jonathan Mohr  |   Friday, June 27, 2008  |  Comments( 13 )

Minnesota Vikings
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There are two lines of argument disappointed Kansas City Chiefs fans or Minnesota Vikings haters fall back on when trying to dismiss the impact defensive end Jared Allen will have this season.

Leaving aside the off-field issues Allen has had in the past with alcohol, which are most frequently mentioned by his detractors, let’s focus on the second.

Allen led the NFL in 2007 with 15.5 sacks despite missing the first two games of the season. However, as many have subsequently noted, most of those sacks (12.5) came in the first half of games, and some have alleged that Allen tended to disappear in the fourth quarter and was nowhere to be found with the game on the line.

But is that a fair criticism? Let’s break down the numbers so you can decide for yourself.

Of Allen’s 15.5 sacks, five came when the Chiefs were ahead, five came when they were behind and 5.5 were recorded when the game was tied. He had nine sacks in games Kansas City (4-12) lost and 6.5 in games the Chiefs won.

Allen had 10.5 sacks when the margin of the game was seven points or fewer, four sacks when it was eight to 14 points and one sack when the margin was 15 points or more.

Allen’s sacks per quarter in 2007 were as follows:

<li>First – seven</li>
<li>Second – 5.5</li>
<li>Third – two </li>
<li>Fourth – one</li>

Those defending Allen say that he had fewer chances for sacks in the second half of games because the Chiefs were usually playing catch-up and the other teams were keeping the ball on the ground.

In fact, the Chiefs trailed at halftime in six of the 14 games Allen played, led in six of the games and were tied in two. Additionally, of the three second-half sacks Allen tallied in 2007, two actually came when Kansas City was behind in the game. However, the Chiefs did trail at the end of three quarters in 10 of those games by an average margin of nearly nine points, so opponents were certainly less apt to throw in the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, there is still an obvious disparity between Allen’s sack production in the first half of games compared to the second. Whether than can be attributed to in-game adjustments on the part of his opponents, wearing down throughout the game, or the game situations themselves, is difficult to say.

And it is important to note that, although Allen’s second-half production may not have been where he would have liked it, many of his first-half sacks made a significant impact in those games.

Allen’s first two sacks of '07 came at the end of the first half during a Week 3 game against Minnesota, with the Vikings ahead 10-3, one of which took them out of field goal range.

In Week 6, a 27-20 victory over Cincinnati for Kansas City, Allen had 2.5 sacks, sharing one in the first quarter with the Chiefs behind 7-3 that forced a punt. He then sacked Carson Palmer on the Bengals' next possession just as the quarter ended. That sack came on a second down and Cincinnati picked up a first on the next play. However, Allen ended the drive four plays later when he sacked Palmer and forced a fumble.

Allen had two more sacks the next week in Kansas City’s 12-10 win over the Raiders. His second came on Oakland's first possession of the third quarter and forced a punt.

Allen shared a sack in the second quarter of a game in Week 9 against Green Bay that resulted in a fumble, and he forced another on a solo sack a few weeks later against Detroit.

So Allen’s impact was definitely felt throughout the season, and Vikings fans will have to hope that impact will continue in 2008, whether it be in the first half or the second. As long as Allen helps Minnesota win games, all the other numbers don’t mean much, and neither do the arrows from those hoping to see Allen, and the Vikings, fail.
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About Jonathan Mohr

A lifelong Vikings fan, I live in the Twin Cities area (about a mile from Winter Park) and work as an editor at a boating magazine. As with all long-suffering Vikings fans, I patiently look forward to the day when Minnesota finally breaks through and wins a Super Bowl. Until then I eat my...
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CommentsComments: 13  |  Sign Up  View all comments
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No.1
sec116row11seats12and13		04:39 AM
06/27/2008
Allen is everything you want in an end but his numbers vs the raiders for both games are great because they are against sims the...
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No.2
LET'SGOBUFFALO		09:12 AM
06/27/2008
I think that Allen is a one year wonder, and as your stats show, he only got sacks early on in games, not during the 4th quarter...
No.3
10:41 AM
06/27/2008
I don't expect a guy who had 15.5 sacks and 65 tackles to slump this year in a weaker division, especially with how bad the Lions...
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